It is taking some time for me to adjust to the new Australian prism through which I am viewing current affairs. The surrounding environment here is dramatically different from Japan and the rest of Northeast Asia. At the same time, I am strangely still officially part of the Asia side of the Pacific and the influence is visually obvious in the mix of faces, restaurants and businesses here in Melbourne. The influence also comes across in general Australian awareness of Asia. Of course, this is very gratifying and blunts the impact of culture shock.
Being here simultaneous with the inauguration of President Obama provides a glimpse into the political opinions of Australians, and most have welcomed the new President with excitement, viewing it as America making a significant leap of progress in society. I believe most also assume this will translate into an equally significant leap in political progress, attitude, and approach towards interaction with other nations. Of course, much of these expectations are based in negative opinions or interpretations, rightly or wrongly, of President Bush's attitude and approach the past 8 years.
From having spent most of the last 4-5 years in Northeast Asia, I can say from the confidence of personal experience that the Bush Administration handled the Asia region mostly with success, leaving stronger relationships behind with China, Japan and South Korea than what had existed at the end of the Clinton Administration. However, the North Korea problem still persists and our relations with Russia have stagnated considerably. The clear success of establishing a multilateral process in the 'Six-Party' framework for handling the North Korea problem increased our political capital with China in particular, and in this sense, has increased pressure on North Korea via that channel. Unfortunately, the essential state of North Korea has been little changed, with no believable transparency into its scheming around nuclearization and stringent state controls.
Regarding tensions between China and Taiwan, these have been reduced primarily due to changes in the Taiwanese Government and its approach to building ties with the Mainland. However, I feel the stability in the China/US relationship has provided a positive backdrop for this to develop. Around the rest of the Asia-Pacific, relations have been maintained or improved upon with Vietnam, Australia and, in general, the rest of Southeast Asia. Now with the global economy side-swiped by the credit crisis, and in only the very early stages of regaining its footing, we are all looking outward and inward in an effort to find solutions to the issues at hand.
The impact the new Obama Administration will have on our economic and diplomatic links with Asia is soon to be seen, and flow forth not just from the President, but also from those in a few key positions. Under the title of "Renewing American Diplomacy", the new administration has opened with the following:
"Seek New Partnerships in Asia: Obama and Biden will forge a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements, such as the six-party talks on North Korea. They will maintain strong ties with allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia; work to build an infrastructure with countries in East Asia that can promote stability and prosperity; and work to ensure that China plays by international rules."
Basically, this can be interpreted as follows:
- We want a grand strategy for approaching the region.
- The approach of signing bilateral free-trade agreements, such as with South Korea, will be questioned, if not scrapped.
- We don't believe the Six-Party Talks were of any serious, formal value.
- We want to reassure our traditional allies of our strong relationships.
- We want to expand positive links between East Asian economies.
- We plan to be more antagonistic with China via the WTO and other international bodies of which they are a member nation.
What must be understood in regards to the Asia-Pacific is that almost everything will be a function of the U.S.-China relationship.
The Obama Administration must get this right first, and all else will follow; a reason for me recommending last year that China be the first country President Obama visits on his first official trip outside the United States.
This is why #1 in the above list is extremely important and must be in place prior to anything else on the list, especially #6. Although I have my doubts about #2, if it is superceded by a grand strategy that stresses the importance of economic connectivity over the introduction of progressive labor standards, I believe it could be positive in the long-term. On #3, the Obama Administration must be careful not to completely throw away this framework; rather it would be best to study it, take what works, and enhance the relationships that were developed. They must not underestimate any framework that is able to seat China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea at the same table on a somewhat regular basis. As for #4 and #5, there is nothing new or creative and are hard to disagree with.
Over the next few posts, I will profile those in the following offices as I believe they will be critical in the Obama Administration's execution of any grand strategy relating to U.S. links with the Asia-Pacific:
- Council of Economic Advisors
- US Trade Representative
- Secretary of Treasury
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of Defense
As I have stated before, a great 'grand strategy' means nothing if you do not have the means to execute it.
Since some of the nominees for the above positions are not yet confirmed, I will begin with those that are and continue as they are filled. These posts will try to clarifyexplore the larger economic and political context within which supply chain logistics managers will do business in the Asia-Pacific over next few months and years.