Cross Border Journal

South Africa Struggles to Keep Power Infrastructure from Sliding Backwards

I was catching up on recent posts over at the Enterprise Resilience Blog and saw that Stephen DeAngelis has written on South Africa's growing troubles with supplying electricity to the country.

Since I just spent two months there from the end of October through the middle of December, I had the (unfortunate) experience of not only sitting through a few blackouts but also had the chance to gain some perspective on how the country has changed the past 14 years from the people I worked with--mostly white South Africans--as they still represent the majority of working professionals and business management.

Basically, it is not just about the electricity that you hear complaints--corruption in the government is rampant, with investigations and scandals plaguing the police, the courts, and the government. The radio stations every morning are often making fun of the government and its incompetency.

My white South African friends told me that the old government used to put forth 10-year plans for the development of the country which aided in the country's significant growth and economic rise versus the rest of Africa. However, as most of us know, that same country was tainted by apartheid.

When apartheid ended, and the multiracial government took over, it began to often reject any symbols or practices of the former government and continues to do so today, down to the fight songs sung at rugby matches. One of the casualties was the planning and execution discipline of the former government. 

Mr. DeAngelis comments on the entire article, but this section stands out for me:

The government of South Africa has known for nearly a decade that this day was coming. It didn't ignore the problem, but it was unsuccessful in enticing private businesses to built new power plants. In the meantime, it delayed any new construction projects by Eskom. When the green light for new projects was finally given, it was too late to prevent the shortages they are now experiencing. The result is growing frustration and slowed development.

"South Africans are appalled by the daily interruptions to their lives. Workers sit idle, televisions flick into darkness and silence, elevators stall between floors, gas stations cannot pump, cakes remain forever half-baked. Every intersection with disabled traffic lights becomes a four-way stop, with drivers in each direction maddeningly delayed as the endless lines of cars inch forward."

South Africa is a beautiful country and I could see it and its people yearning to develop and enjoy the benefits of advances in industry and technology. However, its government's leaders as a whole are still inexperienced as leaders and will have to learn from their mistakes and adapt to the essential responsibilities of government.

The government also has to teach the poor population how to earn a higher standard of living not through entitlements and hand-outs but through hard work, education and entrepreneurship. For example, one affirmative action quota in South Africa asks for at least one black South African to be present on every corporate board in the country. In an investigation of this program, one woman was found to be on 26 different boards alone and with very little or no contribution. This kind of scenario helps neither the boards integrate the mostly black poor population nor does it help educate and develop black leaders that could contribute positively to the corporate environment.

There are obviously positive stories as well where poor South African blacks have succeeded in acquiring an education or in becoming an entrepreneur, but it is no wonder my South African friends are betting against the government in the lead-up to the World Cup in 2010. They are betting that somehow the government is going to screw everything up, and having listened to the radio each morning on the way to work, I can't say I left South Africa without any doubt in the country's future success.

My hope is that the government finds its way so that the next time I am back in South Africa I won't be left in the dark.

Snow Tests Supply Chain Resilience in Asia

Tonight I enjoyed a nice Korean dinner in the heart of Korea Town in Tokyo. On the way out with my co-worker and his wife, we quickly realized it was snowing. Unlike other winters I remember in Tokyo, this is the first time I have seen it snow so regularly. On the way home, I had to trudge through the slush and thought not only of the effects on transportation but also on the markets that rely on milder Tokyo winters, such as the cold beverage industry. Being that my previous company specializes in domestic transportation for Coca-Cola products and raw materials, I have a feeling that this winter will slow inventory turnover further and result in lower revenues for both companies.

Of course, this is nothing compared to what has hit China, and the guys over at 3PLWire have a great post from last week to sum up the impact as it stands currently, and also provide some pointers on remaining resilient in the face of such adversity. It is always great insight to hear directly from the ground, so thanks to 3PLWire for passing on such communication.

As for whether this is a freak winter or not, I came across a post by the gents at Powerline regarding the topic of global warming, now often called global climate change as advocates of a more urgent response look to be hedging their bets on whether the weather will get warmer or colder. As Powerline points out, we may be seeing a cooling that is directly correlated with a 'quiet' trend in sunspot activity. If the research they point to is correct, we could be in the beginning of a longer cooling period of close to a century in length. In that case, supply chain planners are in for quite a few more years of increased snowfall in areas normally just south of it and the resulting effects on supply chain performance.

It can't hurt to start integrating the experience from this year into scenario planning and advanced preparation for the future.

Changes in Japan Highlighted in Economist

Many of the issues I touched on in my three-part series on changes occurring in Japanese business almost a year and a half ago are discussed again in the Economist as part of larger series on Japan. It was brought to my attention through a post over at Tom Barnett's site. Many of my comments were first echoed in the International Herald Tribune. The fact that they are now covered in the Economist is a nice, additional validation that the trends I have seen while on the ground here in Japan are not isolated to my own experience.

Reading my posts and the articles and writing at the links above will give you a very good understanding of the transition Japan is currently going through.

Happy (Chinese) New Year

I have descended from the mountain to rejoin the blogging civilization and want to wish everyone visiting my blog a Happy Chinese New Year. The longer I am in Asia, the more impacted I feel by the Chinese New Year versus the Western calendar new year, but it is also a good excuse to delay coming back here to kick off 2008.

In 2007 I pretty much went off the blogging map, in stark contrast to all the very focused posts I put together in 2006 on supply chain topics and peripheral subjects such as 'resilience'. Last year ended up with me focused on my career development and creating closer ties with family--these were definitely the two most important themes in my life last year.

Switching jobs from a traditional Japanese company to Manhattan Associates was such a drastic change, it was like hopping from a slowly prodding burrow onto an untamed stallion, feeling it bolting forth and not quite knowing which direction it might take you next. But, once broken, you can take in the scenery more clearly and also move forth swiftly and with resolution.

In my first year with Manhattan, I was fortunate to be part of two successful IT implementations--one in Japan and one in South Africa. Today I am in the beginning of my third implementation while still providing support to our client and partners in South Africa. Where in Japan I balanced my knowledge of the culture and language with my growing understanding of supply chain technology, in South Africa I was completely reliant on my knowledge of Manhattan technology, people skills and crisis management skills. These two distinct experiences have laid the foundation for my current project--a client's roll-out of supply chain technology to their logistics centers across the world, including Japan.

Nailing the delivery of a customer's supply chain technology solution is difficult in and of itself--nailing it across several countries within a two- to three-year time frame is several times more challenging. In this scenario, skills in both managing global projects  and also managing the balance between a global supply chain design versus local delineations are critical.

These are some of the major themes I hope to focus on in 2008 while reflecting back upon the many experiences I had in 2007 as I became familiar with the dynamics of the supply chain technology industry.